At first I did not want to buy this book. I looked at the cover and thought, this guy seems to be one of those “religious fanatics” who carries a banner in his hand saying “The end is coming”. But at the same time, the oil prices were (at the time I bought the book) flirting with higher 90’s and 100 per barrel. And so I thought to myself “What the heck!!” – It looked like an easy and a fast read – let me give it a shot and, worst case scenario, at least get some chuckle out of it.
But then, as I started reading this book, the author, while repeating himself in most part of the book – convinced me that the way things are going – both on the political and on the financial front – US is bound to see some tough choices ahead. This book was written before the recent big jump in the oil prices and before the “sub prime” financial crisis. I think at the time of his writing, the oil was about $60 a barrel. The author first linked the dependence of and advancements in the Western Civilization to Oil and then, by performing exhaustive research on the oil, conveys how the rise in the price of oil threatens the very existence of it. By the way, most of his research on oil is borrowed from his earlier book, which was titled the “Oil Factor”. By using his hard core research, human psychology and other historical tidbits, the author created a compelling argument that can not be shrugged aside. The author furthers his arguments by performing historical assessment of the stock prices and its dependence on the price of crude oil, oil production capability and production trends. To make things worse, the author adds, the leadership in Washington has put blinders and marching down a path that may destroy our civilization.
And today (April 22, 2008) I read in the Wall Street Journal that “Saudis Face Hurdle in New Oil Drilling – Big, Complex field Seems to mark End of Easy Picking”. Don’t forget that Saudis are the only OPEC members that supply almost one third of the world oil supply and they pump extra oil to keep the oil prices stable. Also, not to forget, the rest of the OPEC members (including Saudi Arabia) – Are not particularly America’s friends (Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Russia etc.). Saudi Arabia has the King who is US friendly, but the rest of the Saudis (Wahabis especially) HATE America. Now that I finished reading the book and understand the oil politics a bit more, I can safely conclude that this may be one of the reasons for US to occupy Iraq .. Just connecting the dots here …
So, with oil production dwindling and the rest of the oil guarded by the enemies of the US, we need to pay serious heed to this doctor – who has Ph.D. in Psychology – and whose prediction have (unfortunately) come true in the past. No to mention, the economic growth in India and China is not helping the scenario as all. Given this, my friends, $200 a barrel does not seem too far fetched – this would mean $10 /gallon on the gas pump. Are you ready for this??????? Don’t forget, this will increase inflation which in turn will raise transportation costs and decrease the industrial efficiency.
Anyway, while given these doomsday predictions – the author offers hope by suggesting that we could make serious amounts of money EVEN under these grim scenarios. The author also mentions that a persons with more of “Emotional Intelligence” than the higher IQ will survive the coming market collapse – make money in it. HERD mentality and following everyone else to make money will not be an option. Only serious research and investigation would yield profits. He draws a parallel of current and near future economic conditions will be similar to the one that US economy faced in the early 1970’s. And with this in mind – he offers investment advice – some of which – has also come true. I was a little late in picking up this book – or else I would have made good money in Gold and petroleum based stocks. I don’t want to give away the thunder from the book – but author finishes the book by suggesting “Investment Pitfalls” and “Investment Jackpots” during the upcoming stagflation in the US market. I would seriously ask you to read and consider his investment advice and prosper. I have placed my bets already ….
Here is the link to the Amazon site in case my review has peeked your curiousity enough.
